Another week of the US government shutdown starts and, already after three weeks, leading to a contradictory upward momentum for the US dollar – the uncertainty begins to weigh on the greenback.
The euro had been struggling since the September FOMC meeting, pulling back sharply after reaching new highs earlier that month.
But the latest price action suggests euro sellers are taking a breather.
Several factors are at play: the renewed US-China trade turmoil is weighing on the US dollar, while the ongoing US government shutdown — now entering its fourth week — is starting to hurt confidence in the greenback’s near-term prospects.
After testing its recent peak, the dollar index (DXY) appears stuck in a range and shows signs of technical exhaustion, creating a window for a moderate EUR/USD rebound.
Still, the pair’s overall picture remains neutral and sideways, with markets awaiting stronger directional cues from incoming macro data and fiscal headlines.
EUR/USD 4H chart, October 20, 2025. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- 1.1750 mini-resistance
- Main resistance 1.18
- 2025 highs 1.19188
Support levels
- 1.1560 to 1.16 support
- Past week lows 1.15464
- 1.1470 pivotal support
- 1.1350 to 1.14 main support
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
